Not sure how to calculate for the odds that someones passport would fall into the condition that you wondered about. I would think first of all you would need to know how many total passports exist, and then look at the rate in which passports are replaced and assume that some replaced are due to lost and a percentage of that that arent lost are the actual that have the readability issues. You would get better figures if the old passport that is damaged somehow is turned back in before replacement issued and a record of this maintained to have statistical data to use as a basis for probability.
I have only dealt with check digits in UPC codes, never worked with Machine Readable Passports.
Are there any existing formulas out there or are you having to create your own for this report?
With a passport with a readability issue, if it has an issue I would think just get a new one. So not sure why statistical info is critical. Thinking I am not understanding your situation